Potholes everywhere – heatwaves, deteriorating roads and the renewed fraud risk

Key points to note for local authorities, businesses and insurers

• Post Online has reported that UK drivers are being warned to expect a potential increase in potholes after the hottest summer on record, marked by five heatwaves and a peak temperature of 38.1C at Kew Gardens.
• The RAC has explained that intense ultraviolet exposure and heat oxidise the bitumen that binds asphalt, making road surfaces harder, more brittle and more prone to cracking as they cool.
• Once cracks appear, later rainfall, vehicle movements and existing poor maintenance can quickly convert them into serious defects.
• The RAC’s 2026 Report on Motoring records that 51% of motorists say the condition of UK roads is their biggest motoring concern, 83% encounter potholes on most journeys, 54% come across them every time they drive, and 34% have already suffered vehicle damage caused by poor road surfaces.
• Expect increased claims activity linked to potholes, uneven surfaces and heat-related road degradation.
• Apply early fraud screening to motor, public liability, employer’s liability and property claims involving alleged surface defects.
• Look for clusters, repeat locations, inconsistent mechanisms of loss, late reporting, weak photographic evidence and damage that does not match the alleged impact.
• Preserve inspection records, maintenance logs, photographs, CCTV, telematics and complaints data at the earliest stage.

The concern is no longer confined to winter freeze-thaw deterioration. Prolonged heat, intense UV exposure, subsequent rainfall and heavy traffic can all accelerate the failure of already fragile surfaces. That creates a broader claims environment for insurers, local authorities, property owners, retailers, logistics operators and other businesses responsible for roads, car parks, delivery yards, pedestrian areas and private premises.

The fraud risk is equally clear. As potholes become more numerous and more visible, they provide a ready explanation for vehicle damage, alleged trips and falls, cycling incidents, motorbike accidents and property damage. In a challenging economic climate, genuine increases in defects may be exploited by opportunistic claimants, claims farmers and organised fraud networks seeking to attach historic, unrelated or exaggerated damage and injury to a plausible road or premises defect.

Our 2023 alert highlighted Zurich Municipal’s warning that fraudulent pothole claims had more than doubled, with extreme weather leaving greater scope for fraudsters to allege that pre-existing vehicle damage was caused by road defects. The latest heatwave reporting reinforces that same risk. If the volume of genuine potholes increases, so too will the opportunity for dishonest claims across motor, public liability, employer’s liability and property lines.

Local authorities, insurers and businesses should therefore expect a possible rise in claims alleging damage or injury from potholes, uneven surfaces and surface degradation in the months ahead. The risk is not limited to highways. Potholes and surface defects can arise in car parks, loading bays, industrial estates, supermarket and retail premises, private access roads, footpaths and pedestrianised areas, all of which may generate claims by drivers, cyclists, motorcyclists, pedestrians, employees, visitors and delivery personnel.

The message from our 2019 warning and 2023 alert remains clear: more potholes means more claims, and more claims means more opportunity for fraud. Claims may include staged or contrived accidents, exaggerated injury, duplicated repair invoices, unrelated or historic vehicle damage, false passenger or witness evidence, and claims where the alleged location, defect or mechanism of loss cannot withstand scrutiny.

Fraud screening should therefore be applied early and consistently. Claims handlers should be alert to claims notified shortly after media reporting, clusters of claims from the same location, repeat claimant or vehicle involvement, inconsistent descriptions of the defect, limited photographic evidence, images lacking metadata, damage that is inconsistent with the alleged impact, late reporting, and circumstances where there is no contemporaneous complaint, accident report, CCTV, witness account or maintenance record supporting the allegation.

For businesses and local authorities, prevention and evidence capture will be critical. Inspection regimes should be reviewed in light of the summer heatwave conditions and any subsequent rainfall. Records should be contemporaneous, consistent and capable of demonstrating reasonable systems of inspection, repair prioritisation and escalation. Where temporary repairs are undertaken, photographs, measurements, repair logs and contractor records should be retained. Businesses should also preserve CCTV, telematics, incident reports, maintenance records and complaints data at the earliest stage once a claim is intimated.

Practical steps to take for businesses and local authorities can be found in our Industry Focussed Fraud Indicators which will be made available to our clients on request.

For more information, please contact Helen Laight or Claire Laver.

For more information or advice, please contact one of our experts in our Casualty Fraud Team.