In ten years' time

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In ten years' time

Published 5 noviembre 2018

Robert Lee, Head of Residential at DAC Beachcroft, looks at the macro trends shaping homes of the future.

If Amazon has disrupted retail, and WeWork the office, what has it been for residential?  For me it has been less a new entrant, but rather the dynamics of supply and demand.

The UK's housing shortage will continue to affect this current generation of young people, the potential buyers of tomorrow. This is a generation that is said to be more concerned with access than ownership. Whether that is more by choice or by circumstance, it is a fact that only a third of them are likely to be homeowners, as compared to two thirds for their parents.

These are the demographics and economics that will shape the homes they live in:

  • The UK's population will grow to 72 million, from 64 million in 2012
  • Global economic growth is predicted to be slower in the second half of the century than the first, further dampening hopes of regular salary increases
  • Jobs will increasingly be more about projects than promotions
  • An increase in 3.5m in the over 75 age group, up to 8.5 million from 2012, will put more pressure on availability of family housing
  • Location wise, rural is down and urban is up, but not London. The exodus to other UK towns and cities, according to Savills recent report, is at a five year high and for those in their 30's the flow is up by 68% on 2012 figures
  • In this crowded, expensive country emerging behavioural trends point towards changed responses to the concept of home, with perhaps less emphasis on "home-making" and more on "place-making". 

Less delayed by planning requirements and infrastructure demands, institutionally or developer owned apartment buildings are a faster means of addressing shortage. The future sees a home that is more compact, with enough space to live in, but not a lot to spare. Smaller, it is less expensive to heat, which aligns with a need to "have to "respond to climate change, rather than a well-intentioned, "like to". Home is increasingly likely to be pre-built or modular; a useful future-proofing strategy, where space can be increased or reduced, depending on family requirements. For as long as the Conservatives are in power, flexibility can also be delivered through proposals to build up, rather than out – as headlined in James Brokenshire's speech at the Conservative Party Conference.  The response to home as a unit is more practical and less emotional, with a sense of well-being generated as much from the community, as from a building.

 

Key Contacts

Robert Lee

Robert Lee

London - Walbrook

+44 (0)20 7894 6408

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